How is geopolitics reshaping your air operations and strategic priorities?

Geopolitical upheavals require constant adaptation. As a European airline, avoiding Russian airspace adds up to two hours per flight to Asia. This results in higher fuel consumption, increased CO₂ emissions, and rising costs—without any regulatory compensation.

Meanwhile, competitors such as Middle Eastern and Chinese airlines continue to access Russian airspace freely. This asymmetry undermines our competitiveness. Trade tensions, particularly between China and the United States, have also disrupted our transpacific operations. E-commerce flows declined after the United States removed the USD 800-de minimis exemption, which is now taxed regardless of shipment value. The European Union is planning similar rules, bringing forward their implementation from 2028 to 2026, including a tax on each parcel. E-commerce volumes within the EU have increased by more than 100 percent year on year, while regulatory pressure continues to intensify. Beyond politics, various events also play a role: conflicts in the Middle East, as well as volcanic eruptions such as those in Ethiopia, force diversions, delays and additional costs. Unlike many European companies that operate primarily within a national framework, we operate in a global, demanding, and unforgiving market. Our flights connect multiple continents, and with fixed assets such as aircraft—whose lifespan reaches 25 to 30 years—every decision represents a long-term bet on the future resilience of markets. Despite growing unpredictability, we remain focused on creating value for our stakeholders (not shareholders), with resilience at the core of everything we do.

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How are you preparing for such an uncertain and competitive future?

Preparing for the future requires both strategic vision and strong operational agility. The order for ten Boeing 777-8F aircraft reflects a commitment spanning several decades, rather than a pursuit of short-term gains. In reality, long-term planning remains difficult to stabilize. Airline budgets become outdated quickly, and quarterly revisions provide far greater accuracy. The real challenge lies in the geographical reallocation of industrial production. Supply chain shocks following the pandemic highlighted the risks of excessive dependence on a single hub: China. Today, the world is in transition. India appears to be a promising candidate, with a young and skilled population. However, development takes time: it may take five to ten years before these countries reach sufficient capacity to produce complex technologies. For Cargolux, success depends on establishing an early presence in these emerging hubs, before the transition is fully completed. Markets such as Singapore offer an instructive lesson. Starting from poverty and addiction in the 1960s, the country became a global financial and industrial hub through consistent policies and a clear vision. Luxembourg, by contrast, despite a more favourable starting point, lacks this continuity. Democratic cycles can slow the implementation of a long-term vision. With a highly sophisticated social model in Europe, employers struggle to remain competitive. Without a long-term industrial strategy, Europe risks falling further behind. Our competitiveness relies on global reach, forward planning, and the ability to identify future trade routes.

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